EUR/AUD’s down trend resumed by breaking through 1.5951 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.6334 to 1.5951 from 1.6264 at 1.5881. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.5644. On the upside, above 1.6004 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5963 (2024 low). Should confirm that it’s already reversing whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) and pave the way to this support. However, decisive break of 1.6264 resistance will indicate medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 1.6842 resistance, even as a corrective bounce.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.4281 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6523) holds.
