EUR/AUD’s down trend continued to 1.5774 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6078 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 1.5359 projection level.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.8160 to 1.6125 from 1.6617 at 1.5359. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 1.4582. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.6559) holds, in case of rebound.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.4281 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6523) holds.
