EUR/CHF gyrated higher last week after brief retreat, but lacked momentum to push through 100% projection of 0.9204 to 0.9516 from 0.9331 at 0.9643 decisively. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 0.9489 support holds. Sustained trading above 0.9643 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 0.9836 next.
In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.9487) is a medium term bullish sign. Sustained break trading above long-term falling channel resistance (at around 0.9620) would suggest that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has bottomed at 0.9204. Stronger rally should then be see to 0.9928 key resistance at least.
In the long term picture, bullish signs are emerging. However, the important hurdle at 0.9928 resistance, which is close to 55 M EMA (now at 0.9960), is needed to be taken out decisively before considering long term trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best.
