EUR/CHF fell sharply to 0.9317 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Current development suggests that corrective pattern from 0.9218 might have completed with three waves up to 0.9452 already. Further decline is in favor as long as 0.9403 resistance holds. Below 0.9317 will target 0.9265 support first. Firm break there should resume larger fall to retest 0.9204 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.9403 will dampen this view and bring stronger rise back to 0.9452 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9857) holds.
