EUR/CHF stayed in range below 0.9478 last week, correcting the rise from 0.9094. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9094 to 0.9478 at 0.9331 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.9478 will resume whole rally from 0.8979.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8979 medium term bottom is at least reversing the fall from 0.9928 (2024 high), with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Further rally should be seen to 0.9660 resistance next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9264 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, the break of 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) suggests that down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. This is supported by bullish divergence condition in both W and M MACD. Further rise should be seen to 55 M EMA (now at 0.9632). Firm break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.
