EUR/GBP fell to as low as 0.08595 last week but recovered after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.8652 will suggest that the corrective pattern from 0.8752 has completed and retain near term bullishness. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 0.8752 high next. However, sustained break of 0.8600 will indicate near term bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8506.
In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it’s reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it’s a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8496) holds.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
