EUR/GBP’s volatility increased last week but was still bounded in established range. Initial bias stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Strong resistance is still expected from 0.8610 to complete the corrective bounce from 0.8453. On the downside, break of 0.8545 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8453 low. However, sustained break of 0.8610 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rally towards 0.8728 resistance.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) should have completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8221. For now, outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8610 support turned resistance hold. However, sustained break of 0.8610 will argue that fall from 0.8863 might have completed as a correction, instead of reversal.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
