EUR/JPY’s break of 164.16 resistance last week indicates that rise from 154.77 is resuming. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 158.27 at 167.66. On the downside, break of 161.68 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, further rally is still expected in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 149.91).
