EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1771; (P) 1.1803; (R1) 1.1825; More

Fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, is still in progress. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.1703 key support next. On the upside, break of 1.1894 resistance will suggest short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.1974 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

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