EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9862; (P) 0.9930; (R1) 1.0055; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. On the downside, break of 0.9734 minor support will suggest rejection by 55 day EMA (now at 1.0022), and medium term falling channel. Bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9534 low and then resume down trend. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.0022) will raise the chance of medium term bottoming at 0.9534. Further rally should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.

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