EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0601; (P) 1.0640; (R1) 1.0707; More

EUR/USD’s solid break of 1.0639 resistance short term bottoming at 1.0447, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763). Rejection by this level, followed by break of 1.0522 support, will retain near term bearishness for resuming the whole decline from 1.1274. However, sustained break of 1.0763/4 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.0958.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top could still be a correction to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). But chance of a complete trend reversal is rising. In either case, current fall should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0684) holds, in case of rebound.

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