Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.1358. On the upside, firm break of 1.1495 resistance should confirm short term topping and bring stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 1.3123/53 will carry larger bearish implications.
In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 intact, price actions from 1.2081 are viewed as a corrective pattern in the larger up trend from 1.0176 (2025 low). Break of 1.2081 is expected at a later stage after the correction completes. However, sustained break of 1.1353 will raise the chance of medium term trend reversal. That is, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed with three waves up to 1.2081, after rejection by 1.2. That would set up deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904 next.
