EUR/USD rebounded to 1.2445 last week but retreated sharply since then. However, downside is contained above 1.2268 minor support so far. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2268 will argue that fall from 1.2555 is likely resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2154 support and below. On the upside, above 1.2445will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2555 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. Reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.

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