Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2307; (P) 1.2327 (R1) 1.2346; More….

EUR/USD rebounds strongly today and while intraday bias remains neutral, focus is back on 1.2396 temporary top. Break there will resume the rise from 1.2214 and target 1.2475 and above to 1.2516/2555 key resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.2302 will indicate completion of the rebound from 1.2214. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 1.2214. Firm break there will revive the bearish case of trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

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