GBP/JPY flip-flopped in range of 148.93/152.54 last week. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 150.92 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 152.54. Firm break there will suggest that correction from 156.05 has completed, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high. On the downside, however, sustained break of 149.03 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 13.78 fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59 (2018 high). Fall from 156.05 would at least be correcting the whole rise from 123.94 (2020 low). Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.
In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high). However, rejection by 156.69 will invalidate the bullish signal and keep long term outlook neutral first.
