GBP/JPY’s late breach of 199.80 suggests that recent rally is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. On the downside, below 197.92 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring more consolidations. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 195.33 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
