GBP/JPY’s fall from 201.24 extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 197.47. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, but risk will stay on the downside as long as 200.49 resistance holds. Below 197.47 will target 195.01 structural support. Firm break there will indicate that rise fro 184.35 has completed, and possibly the pattern from 180.00 too. Near term outlook will then turn bearish.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
