GBP/JPY’s rally from 184.35 resumed last week but lost momentum after hitting 206.84. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 202.31 support to bring another rise. Break of 206..84 will target 208.09 high. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 199.04 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
