Daily Pivots: (S1) 215.64; (P) 215.97; (R1) 216.52; More…
GBP/JPY’s steep decline and strong break of 55 D EMA today suggests that a medium term top was already formed at 216.58, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, strong support should emerge from 209.58 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. However, firm break of 209.58 will solidify the case that it’s already correcting the whole five-wave rally from 184.35. In this case, 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 216.58 at 204.28 will be the next target.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 205.09) will argue that it’s already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.
