GBP/JPY fell sharply last week and there no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week first. Fall from 217.45 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 219.56. Break of 209.55 support will target 206.10 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 211.79 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price action from 219.56 is seen as correcting the up trend from 184.35 (2025 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10 before the correction completes. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 217.45 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 190.50) holds.
