Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3150; (P) 1.3240; (R1) 1.3297; More

GBP/USD retreated after forming a temporary top at 1.3328. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Outlook outlook is unchanged. Another rise could be seen in GBP/USD and above 1.3328 will target 1.3444 key resistance next. At this point, we’d maintain that price actions from 1.1946 are still seen as a corrective pattern. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3444 to limit upside to bring larger down trend reversal eventually. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2773 to 1.3328 at 1.3116 will raise the chance of reversal and turn bias to the downside for 61.8% retracement at 1.2985. However, on the upside, firm break of 1.3444 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.3835/5016 resistance first zone first.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2773 support will be the first sign that such down trend is resuming. However, considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, firm break of 1.3444 will argue that whole down trend from 2.1161 (2007) has completed. And stronger rise would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1946 at 1.5466.

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GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart


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