Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3101; (P) 1.3127; (R1) 1.3153; More

USD/CAD’s rebound and break of 1.3165 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming at 1.3068, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.3375 resistance first. Break should indicate completion of whole fall from 1.3664. In that case, further rise should be seen back to retest 1.3664. On the downside, in case of another fall, we’d stay cautious on bottoming as USD/CAD is close to channel support (now at 1.3061). But sustained break of the channel support will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.3664 to 1.3180 from 1.3375 at 1.2891.

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In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3049) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

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