Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3268; (P) 1.3294; (R1) 1.3327; More

USD/CAD is staying in tight range below 1.3329 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, we’re favoring the case that decline from 1.3664 has completed with three waves down to 1.3068 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, just ahead of medium term channel support. Hence, rise will stay on the upside as long as 1.3068 holds. Break of 1.3375 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 1.3664 high.

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In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3086) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.


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