USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2099; (P) 1.2193; (R1) 1.2245; More

USD/CAD’s decline extends to as low as 1.2140 so far, just inch above 100% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.2136. Intraday bias stays on the downside for the moment. Next target is long term cluster support at 1.2061. We’d be cautious on strong support from there to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.2265 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside to for rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2510). However, sustained break of 1.2061 will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection at 1.1816.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2653 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound. Also, sustained break of 1.2061 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

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