USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD rebounded strongly last week but failed to break through 1.3540 resistance decisively. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations first. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.3357 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3540/3 will resume the rise from 1.3176. That will also revive that case that whole fall from 1.3897 has completed, and target this resistance. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3357 support will argue that rebound from 1.3176 has completed, and target this low for resuming whole fall from 1.3897.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

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