USD/CAD gyrated lower last week but recovered after breaching 1.4238 support very briefly. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.4791 is still extending. On the upside, break of 1.4400 will argue that it’s still in the second leg, and turn bias to the upside for 1.4541 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.4238 will suggest that the third leg has already started for 1.4150 and below.
In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is in progress and possibly resuming. Next target is 61.8% projections of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2005 at 1.5270. While rejection by 1.4689 will delay the bullish case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 M EMA (1.3463) holds.
