Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2822; (P) 1.2847; (R1) 1.2890; More….
USD/CAD’s sharp fall and break of 1.2804 support indicates rejection from 1.2916. Consolidation from 1.2916 is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2665 support or possibly below. Still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.2598 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption. On the upside, decisive break of 1.2916 will confirm resumption of whole rally from 1.2061. In that case, USD/CAD should target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.