USD/CAD’s corrective fall fro 1.4247 could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 1.3965 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954 to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.4127 will bring stronger rally to retest 1.4247 high. However, sustained break of 1.3954/65 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.3773, and argue that rebound from 1.3480 might have completed.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4791 medium term top has completed as a three wave correction to 1.3480. It’s still early to judge if rise from there a corrective bounce, or resumption of the larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). But in either case, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.4290 will pave the way to retest 1.4791 high. However, rejection by 1.4290 will argue that fall from 1.4791 is going to extend with another leg through 1.3480 instead.
