USD/CAD’s rise from 1.3730 resumed today and intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4247 to 1.3730 at 1.3927 will argue that fall from 1.4247 has already completed at 1.3730. Further rise should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4050. Rejection by 1.3972, followed by break of 1.3843 support will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.3730 low first.
In the bigger picture, the pattern from 1.4791 (2025 high) is still extending, with fall from 1.4247 as the third leg. Firm break of 1.3480 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3480 from 1.4247 at 1.2936. For now, medium term risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4247 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
