Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2611; (P) 1.2643; (R1) 1.2702; More….
USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.2526 extends to as high as 1.2716 so far, breaking 38.2% retracement of 1.2942 to 1.2526 at 1.2685. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2725) and above. For now, such recovery is seen as a correction. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance below 1.2814 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2630 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2526. However, sustained break of 1.2814 will turn focus back to 1.3124 instead.
In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4689 (2016 high) to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.
