USD/CHF dropped to as low as 0.9958 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. near term outlook remains bearish with 1.0121 resistance intact. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0327. Below 0.9958 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9443 to 1.0342 at 0.9786 and below. Nonetheless, break of 1.0121 will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to 1.0342.
In the bigger picture, rejection from 1.0327 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from there is still in progress. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg and retest of 0.9443/9548 support zone could be seen. But we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside. At this point, we’re still expecting the larger rally to resume later to 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.