USD/CHF retreated to 0.9088 last week but quickly lost downside momentum. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further decline is mildly in favor. On the downside, below 0.9088 will target a test on 0.8982 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, break of 0.9207 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9304 resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
