Mon, Mar 01, 2021 @ 01:29 GMT
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USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF stayed in tight range below 0.8919 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8919 should confirm short term bottoming at 0.8756, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD too, USD/CHF could be corrective whole fall form 0.9901 in this case. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8756 at 0.9193. Though, break of 0.8821 minor support will bring retest of 0.8756 low instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. Next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. In any case, break of 0.9294 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

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