Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.06; (P) 104.24; (R1) 104.41; More..
USD/JPY recovers notably today but stays in range above 103.65 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’re holding on to the view that larger decline from 111.71 is still in progress. Break of 103.65 should turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low and below. This bearish case will remain favored as long as 105.67 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
