Break of 159.72 support suggests that a short term top was formed at 160.58 in USD/JPY, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside. Deeper pullback should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 160.58 at 158.45. In case of another risk, strong resistance is still expected from 160.71. However, decisive break of 160.71 will confirm up trend resumption. That should push USD/JPY through 161.94 to 100% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 163.47 next.
In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.93) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.
