USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.95; (P) 106.13; (R1) 106.37; More…

USD/JPY strengthens mildly today but stays well below 107.67 near term resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, decisive break 107/67 will indicate near term reversal. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next. But before that, another decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

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