AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6670 resumed last week and extended to as high as 0.6856 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for further rally. However, such rise is still seen as a corrective move. Thus, upside should be limited by 0.6894 resistance to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6723 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6670 low. However, firm break of 0.6894 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7082 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.
