Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.61; (P) 108.95; (R1) 109.18; More…
USD/JPY’s break of 108.25 minor support suggests that a short term top is formed at 109.28, ahead of 109.31 key resistance, on bearish divergence condition. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 106.48 support first. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 104.45 and bring retest of this low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.28/31 holds, in case of recovery. However, decisive break of 109.31 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and target 112.40 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.
