EUR/CHF’s late break of 1.0650 support last week suggests resumption of decline from 1.0915. Initial bias remains is now on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.0915 to 1.0650 from 1.0769 at 1.0605 first. Sustained break there will target 100% projection at 1.0504, which is close to 1.0503 low. On the upside, break of 1.0769 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the decline. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1059 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.0503 at 1.1076) holds, price actions from 1.0503 are seen as a consolidation pattern. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) would still extend through 1.0503 low at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1049/76 will argue that rise from 1.0503 is starting a new up trend and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.1431 and above.
