USD/CAD dropped to as low as 1.3351 but recovered ahead of 1.3315 low. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 1.3315 will resume the whole decline from 1.4667 for 1.3056 long term retracement level. However, firm break of 1.3490 will suggest completion of the fall from 1.3715. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for this resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.
In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.
