EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.5657 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk also stays on the downside with 1.5849 resistance intact. Consolidation pattern from 1.5250 might have completed just missing 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. Below 1.5657 will target 1.5418 support first. Sustained break there will solidify this bearish case and target a retest of 1.5250 low. However, on the upside, sustained break of 1.5852 will bring further rally back to 1.6033 support turned resistance.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5806) further affirms this case and could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.
