USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9704 last week but reversed since then. With 0.9772 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish. Initial bias stays mildly on the downside this week for 0.9420 low. Break will resume medium term fall from 1.0342 and target next long term fibonacci level at 0.9090. However, firm break of 0.9772 will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bullish.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend form 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.
