GBP/JPY’s fall from 208.09 continued last week and accelerated further. This decline is as correcting the whole rally from 148.93. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 185.49 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 193.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, fall from 208.09 medium term top is seen as correcting the up trend from 148.93 (2022 low). Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 208.09 at 185.49. Decisive break there will argue that even larger scale correction is already underway. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 199.44) holds. in case of rebound.
In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it’s at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 169.23).
