Summary
United States: Put on Pause
- As the federal government shutdown approaches its third full week, no end appears to be in sight. While the economic and financial market impact of the shutdown has been muted so far, it is not costless, and there is not much precedent for such a full shutdown lasting longer than a few weeks.
- Next week: Existing Home Sales (Thu.), CPI (Fri.)
International: Soft Signals in a Shifting Landscape
- In a relatively light week for international economic data, UK monthly GDP grew modestly, but last month’s figure was revised into contraction, offsetting recent gains. Wage and labor market data painted a mixed picture of the British economy. Australia’s employment report disappointed, while inflation in India fell below the central bank’s target.
- Next week: China GDP (Mon.), Canada CPI (Tue.), Eurozone PMIs (Fri.)
Topic of the Week: Tensions Rising in U.S.-China Trade Relations
- We unpack the rising tensions brewing in the U.S.-China trade spat this week following export curbs out of China on rare earth minerals and magnets and the U.S. threatening an additional 100% tariff on imports from the country. The 90-day pause on higher reciprocal rates also ends mid-November, though Trump has said these high rates are unsustainable and a fair deal must be met.
