Key takeaways
- Risk-off persists despite US assurances: Markets remain defensive even after Trump pledged naval escorts and insurance guarantees for Hormuz-bound tankers. Asian equities slid sharply, while WTI crude climbed toward $76 and gold advanced, reflecting ongoing geopolitical anxiety.
- Hormuz closure fears intensify: The probability of Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz has risen above 70%, heightening concerns of a supply shock that could push oil toward $100, tighten global liquidity, and increase recession risks.
- Swiss franc regains haven appeal: CHF is stabilising as EUR/CHF drifts lower within a descending channel. A break below 0.9010 could trigger further downside, while 0.9130 caps near-term recovery attempts.
Risk-off sentiment continues to prevail in today’s Asia session, despite US President Trump’s assurance to provide naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil flow chokepoint, and the US International Development Finance Corporation’s offer to provide insurance guarantees for energy transportation vessels.
Here are the intraday performances of key asset classes at the time of writing:
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down around 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 3.8%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 2.6%
- China’s CSI 300 down 1%
- West Texas crude oil up 1.5% to around $76 per barrel
- Gold (XAU/USD) up 1.4% to around $5,160 per oz
- US Dollar Index up 0.1%
- Japanese yen almost unchanged at 157.55 per dollar
- Swiss franc almost unchanged at 0.7820 per dollar
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD) down 0.2% to around 68,215
The ultimate aim is to mitigate a significant oil supply shock that can trigger an upward spiral in WTI crude to $100/barrel, in turn, creating a liquidity squeeze in the global markets (a less dovish Fed or worse still a hawkish Fed) that can see “undiscriminating” selling of all asset classes that rally significantly in the past year such as precious metals (gold and silver), Asia Pacific equities (e.g., South Korea’s KOSPI 200 that recorded a whopping year-to-date gain of 48% as of 27 February 2026).
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran
Fig. 1: Probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 as of 1 February 2026 (Source: Polymarket, MacroMicro)
Market participants are still concerned that the ongoing US-Iran war may prolong with a higher risk of oil supply disruption that increases the odds of a global recession.
The Strait of Hormuz is located between Oman and Iran, and a quarter of the world’s maritime oil trade and a fifth of the LNG trade must pass through, making it one of the most critical maritime energy chokepoints globally.
Based on the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket as of 4 March 2026, as compiled by MacroMicro, the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 has continued to increase to 70.35% from 68.25% a day earlier on 3 March when Trump highlighted his assurances on insurance guarantees and naval escorts for oil tankers passing through it (see Fig. 1).
The Swiss franc has started to reverse losses from Monday
Fig. 2: 1-day rolling performances of major currencies against USD and EUR/CHF as of 4 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)
Despite the risk of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervening on Monday, 3 March to slow down the pace of appreciation of the Swiss franc, which has rallied remarkably (up by 5% from 16 January 2026 to 27 January 2026 against the US dollar) before last Saturday’s first joint missile strike in Iran by the US and Israel, the CHF has started to gain some footing as the Swiss franc is now up by 0.2% against the euro and almost unchanged when paired with the US dollar on a 1-day rolling performance basis (see Fig. 2).
Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/CHF from a technical analysis.
EUR/CHF – Looking poised for a bearish drift towards 0.9010
Fig. 3: EUR/CHF minor trend as of 4 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)
Fig. 4: EUR/CHF medium-term as of 4 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)
The price actions of the EUR/CHF have continued to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel in place since 14 January 2026 high (as seen from its 1-hour chart).
Watch the 0.9130 short-term pivotal resistance, with a bearish bias towards the 0.9010 key medium-term downside trigger level (see Fig. 3).
A break below 0.9010 may unleash another round of multi-week bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.8990 and 0.8960 in the first steps.
However, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.9130 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.9150 and 0.9180.
Key elements to support the bearish bias on EUR/CHF
- Price actions have staged a bearish reaction right at its downward-sloping 20-day moving average (see Fig. 3).
- The hourly MACD trend indicator has continued to trend downwards below its centreline which suggests the minor downtrend phase of the EUR/CHF remains intact (see Fig. 3).
- The daily RSI momentum indicator remains capped below a pull-back resistance at around the 44 level, which indicates a lack of medium-term bullish momentum, lowering the odds of a medium-term bullish reversal on the EUR/CHF (see Fig. 4).
