EUR/AUD stayed in range below 1.6381 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.6381 will resume the rebound from 1.6108 short term bottom to 100% projection of 1.6108 to 1.6381 from 1.6186 at 1.6459. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.6628. Risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.6186 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6569) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
