USD/CAD’s rally continued last week but stalled after hitting 1.4290 fibonacci resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.4200 support holds. Firm break of 1.4292 will target 100% projection of 1.3480 to 1.4247 from 1.3730 at 1.4497. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.4200 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback first.
In the bigger picture, current upward momentum suggests that rise from 1.3480 is reversing whole fall from 1.4791 (2025 high). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290 will pave the way back to retest 1.4791 high. Though, rejection by 1.4290 will revive medium term bearishness.
In the long term picture, strong support form 55 M EMA (now at 1.3654) argues that up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.4791 is in favor at a later stage.
