Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5639; (P) 1.5684; (R1) 1.5720; More….
EUR/AUD’s decline extends lower today and breaks 1.5621 key support level. That’s taken as an indication of medium term reversal. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.5153 support next. On the upside, break of 1.5726 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.5849) is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further fall is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.
