Action Insight

Bitcoin and Ethereum have surged over 14% and 22% this week, respectively, as falling real yields from the Treasury buyback shock combine with Trump's renewed crypto policy push — turning a macro rebound into a more powerful, crypto-specific acceleration.

Gold surged 3.7% to $4,495 after a Treasury buyback shock sent long-end yields and the Dollar tumbling — a real-yield move that survived hawkish FOMC minutes and now puts a break above $4,600 within reach of $5,000.

What's happening: Dollar sold off broadly Wednesday after Treasury announced it will at least double its long-dated debt buyback operations, from $2bn to at least $4bn, starting September 9, pulling the 30-year Treasury yield back below 5.20% from above 5.33% earlier in the week and stripping away Dollar's recent...

Canada has avoided an immediate 50% US tariff for three days while paperwork is finalized, but the Loonie's muted reaction suggests markets see this as deadline relief, not the broader trade normalization needed to justify a bigger CAD rally.

The Hormuz crisis is shifting from an oil-and-bond story to a broader risk-off one, with equities weakening, Copper breaking lower, and Silver losing its rebound structure — a sign its industrial-demand exposure is becoming a liability rather than an advantage.

Why oil's break above $90 is spilling into global bond yields, and why that's flipping the usual risk-off currency playbook What's happening: Brent decisively broke above $90 as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire framework expired with no diplomatic path forward, and the shock is no longer confined to energy. US 30-year...

Brent's break above $90 is doing double duty for CAD/JPY — strengthening Canada's terms of trade while pushing global bond yields higher and deepening Yen funding pressure — and this time Canada's own data are contributing too, unlike June's Yen-only rally.

The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.31%, its highest in 19 years, alongside oil's push through $90 — but fading Fed hike expectations and softer inflation data suggest structural forces like fiscal deficits and Fed credibility uncertainty are carrying the move as much as oil is.

Dollar extended its selloff into the new week without any fresh negative catalyst, instead continuing to digest the cumulative case built by weaker employment, softer retail sales and cooling inflation. September hike odds have fallen from roughly 60% earlier this month to around 25–30%, and Dollar sits at the bottom of the FX leaderboard while Aussie leads.

Gold's rally paused exactly at major trendline resistance near 4,450, but shallow follow-through selling suggests consolidation, not reversal — with this week's Iran truce deadline and early-September US data now the two catalysts that will decide the next move.

AUD/USD has broken out on external tailwinds — a weaker Dollar and rebounding risk appetite — but Thursday's jobs report lands in the middle of a genuine split between economists who think the RBA is done hiking and an RBA that keeps saying otherwise.

Dollar Index is approaching a critical support level as September Fed hike odds collapse from likely to roughly a two-in-three chance of a hold — not because tightening risk has disappeared, but because weaker jobs and softer consumer demand are limiting how far the Fed can realistically go.

The Canadian dollar's rally has accelerated sharply this week without help from oil, built instead on blowout GDP and jobs data — but whether this reflects genuine repositioning for a Bank of Canada hike or just a weak US Dollar remains unconfirmed.

USD/JPY's rebound from last month's intervention is stalling just below 160, as reports of an informal US-Japan understanding — support for the Yen in exchange for BoJ hiking room — reshape how traders read the months ahead.

Dollar slipped again after July PPI undershot expectations, reinforcing fading Fed hike bets, annual producer inflation slowed from 5.5% to 4.7% and September hold odds rose to near 70% from around 45% a week ago. At the same time, Brent's six-session, roughly 12% rally has stalled around the $90 level as US-Iran headlines stop supplying fresh reasons to extend the risk premium.

The RBNZ's latest Survey of Expectations pointed to a September hike and firmer growth, yet NZD fell across the board — because markets had already priced the hawkish rate path and instead traded an 81-basis-point collapse in near-term inflation expectations.

EUR/USD has nearly everything bulls could ask for — a weaker Dollar, fading Fed hike bets, and rising ECB hike odds — yet the pair hasn't broken out, because Euro itself isn't confirming the move broadly across its other crosses.

Dollar weakened broadly after July CPI matched expectations, with headline inflation slowing from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y and core easing from 2.6% to 2.5%. September hold odds rose to around 58% from roughly 51% a day earlier. Core inflation has now fully round-tripped back to exactly where it stood before the Iran war first disrupted energy markets.

Bitcoin is drifting toward the psychologically important $60,000 level in a bearish holding pattern, with September 15's procedural cloture vote on the CLARITY Act setting up an asymmetric outcome — failure would be a clean negative signal, while success would only keep the legislative process moving.

Gold has kept climbing even as Brent rebounded from $70 toward $90, a divergence that reflects markets betting the Fed won't tighten again without proof oil is feeding into core inflation — and Wednesday's CPI is the first test of that bet.