Action Insight

Silver slipped below last week's 58.46 low to touch 58.39 even as Treasury yields and the Dollar fell, while the Gold/Silver ratio accelerated toward 71—a divergence suggesting Silver's weakness is no longer just about rates, with a decisive channel break opening the door to the psychological $50 level.

The Dollar Weakened Broadly but Modestly as Treasury Yields Extended Their Retreat What’s happening: The Dollar weakened broadly but modestly on Tuesday, slipping against all seven major counterparts, as US Treasury yields extended their retreat from last week’s highs. The 10-year yield fell below 5.19%, down from last week’s 5.365%...

The US 10-year yield fell toward 5.19% on Tuesday, extending its retreat from last week's 5.365% peak, but the Dollar Index has only pulled back modestly from 102.607—leaving Wednesday's US CPI to decide whether yields and the Dollar finally converge in a deeper correction or diverge once again.

Bitcoin and Ether have defended nearly identical support twice in less than a week—Bitcoin near 80,365–80,953 and Ether near 2,407—but neither has cleared the resistance needed to confirm its correction is over, leaving Wednesday's US CPI and upcoming ETF flows as the key tests of whether spot demand can sustain the rebound.

An Announced De-Escalation Is Not Yet a Credible Reduction in Disruption Risks What’s happening: Oil reversed sharply higher on Monday as early optimism over a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire gave way to doubts about its credibility, while renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia added another source of geopolitical uncertainty. Brent...

The Australian Dollar remains directionless as RBA hike-timing bets stay split across November, December and February, leaving AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD and GBP/AUD range-bound while AUD/USD tracks the Dollar and EUR/AUD tracks Euro weakness—with October 28's quarterly CPI, not this week's minutes or jobs data, likely the real catalyst.

Gold and Silver have rebounded on a retreat in US Treasury yields, with Gold breaking its falling trendline and Silver bouncing off channel support—but neither has confirmed a bottom, making Wednesday's US CPI report the critical catalyst for whether yields extend their correction or snap back toward recent highs.

TL;DR: The Dollar rally has lost momentum rather than direction. DXY stalled at 102.232 as Fed urgency faded, long-end Treasury yields met buyer demand at two-decade highs, and France was left shouldering more of the Dollar’s remaining support. Absent a sizeable US CPI surprise, the Dollar looks poised for...

The Dollar weakened modestly since late Thursday, then recovered against the Euro, Sterling and Canadian Dollar during the European morning, with ranges still tight. Oil and Treasury yields, the two markets that had been supplying fresh momentum, both ran into resistance.

Bitcoin and Ether fell sharply after months of fading momentum collided with a surge in oil prices and Treasury yields near 5.35%—triggering $484.9m in single-day ETF redemptions and nearly $974m in liquidations, with Bitcoin's next key support at 75,026–76,040 and Ether already testing its 55-day EMA near 2,480.

Global risk sentiment weakened on Thursday as Brent briefly pushed above $105 on renewed reports of possible US military action against Iran, while the US 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 5.35%, close to levels last seen in 2002. US equity futures fell and Asian stocks were broadly lower. The Dollar was broadly the strongest major, with the Yen and Swiss Franc relatively resilient.

Gold fell to 4,066.21 before recovering toward 4,120, and while the near-term bias stays bearish below 4,227.85–4,245.68, fading downside momentum, a stalling 10-year yield near 5.3%, and a rising Gold/Silver ratio suggest a break below 4,000 may struggle to extend much past the 3,937–3,942 support cluster.

The US 10-year Treasury yield hit a 24-year high of 5.35% before a strong $39bn auction cleared at 5.30% and pulled heavy demand—evidence that buyers exist near current levels, even as the September FOMC minutes cited AI-related borrowing as a new contributor to rising yields and the technical chart points to a 5.41–5.42% resistance zone as the next real test.

The Dollar is leading the majors into the FOMC minutes, with DXY at 102.401, up 0.55% at the time of writing, and the Dollar stronger against all seven major peers. Oil is holding above $100, long-end bond yields are climbing across major markets, and renewed stress in French government debt has pushed the Euro to the bottom of the currency table.

Euro flipped from the strongest to the weakest major currency in a single session as French bond relief proved short-lived—the OAT-Bund spread widened back toward 137bp—and EUR/CAD has now broken decisively below 1.6000, with 1.5887 the next key test.

Deutsche Bank sees Silver's physical deficit narrowing toward a possible 2027 surplus as solar demand intensity falls and vault inventories rebuild, but with Silver trading around 60.80, the next move still hinges on the near-term technical fight between 58.68 support and 62.30 resistance—and on Wednesday's FOMC minutes.

Brent crude fell below $98 on Tuesday on improving Middle East supply availability, the planned G7 release of emergency stocks and Saudi Arabia’s unexpectedly aggressive cut to November crude prices for Asian buyers. Lower oil eased inflation-risk pressure, sovereign yields moved lower and the Dollar’s advance paused. EUR/USD rebounded to around 1.127 and the French-German 10-year spread narrowed back toward 130bp.

USD/CAD has rallied from 1.3730 to 1.4292, stalling right at the 61.8% retracement (1.4290) of the 1.4791–1.3480 decline, with Wednesday's FOMC minutes and Friday's Canadian jobs report now standing directly in front of the next directional break.

Neither interest-rate differentials nor a generalized Eurozone panic explain the move; it is French-specific risk with broader Euro implications. A decisive loss of 1.1185 would strengthen the case that the decline from 1.2081 is developing into an impulsive medium-term downtrend, with the current leg from 1.1710 potentially entering its strongest phase.

The Nikkei 225 is closing in on a fresh record near 72,831.73, but unlike June's rally—when USD/JPY ran alongside it to 163.97—a faster BoJ tightening cadence, a more patient Fed, credible intervention risk and the absence of a fresh oil shock mean USD/JPY is unlikely to follow through the 160 zone this time.